China
China’s Growing Economic and Military
Power
Americans perceive China as one of the most
influential countries and believe that this power and
influence will grow. Americans do show some concern
about the emergence of China as a world power, but it
is not a top concern. A majority views China as an economic
competitor, but still Americans lean toward viewing
China’s growing economic power as something positive,
though a large majority are concerned about job losses
to China. Americans do not perceive China as a critical
military threat even over the next decade, but they
do perceive a potential long term military threat and
show substantial discomfort with the prospect of China
significantly increasing its military power.
Americans view China as having significant influence
in the world. Asked in a WorldPublicOpinion.org poll
in June 2006 to rate how much influence China has in
the world on a scale of 0 to 10 with 0 being not all
influential and 10 being extremely influential the mean
response was 6.6, nearly the same as the 6.8 rating
found by CCFR in June 2002 [1]
This was about equal to the rating given to Britain
(6.6) and slightly more than Japan (6.2), the European
Union (5.8) and Russia (5.7).
For some time now a large majority has perceived China
as on a trajectory of increasing power.. In June 2006
WorldPublicOpinion.org asked respondents whether China’s
“influence in the world will increase, decrease,
or stay about the same over the next 10 years.”
A clear majority (70%) felt that its influence will
increase, while just 27% believed its influence would
stay about the same (24%) or decrease (3%).[2]
This closely mirrors the findings from the June 2002
CCFR poll which found 72% that said China would play
a greater role in 10 years. This view has been in place
for some time. CCFR found similar responses in 1994
and 1998.[3]
A May 1999 Pew survey found that two-thirds of Americans
(67%) believed it at least probable that China will
"become a rival superpower to the US."
However, most Americans do not see China as displacing
the US as the dominant world power. Asked by Ipsos Reid
in April 2005 whether they agreed that “China
will soon dominate the world as the most important superpower”
only 32% agreed (13% very much). Sixty-six percent disagreed
(34% very much). [4]
A May 2000 Gallup survey asked which of a list of countries
respondents expected to be "the world's leading
economic power--looking ahead twenty years." A
solid majority of 55% chose the US, but 15% chose China,
compared to 13% for Japan and 10% for the EU.[5]
Americans do show some concern about the emergence
of China as a world power. In January 2005 Pew presented
respondents a list of “foreign policy problems”
and asked about what kind of priority should be given
to each. The problem of “keeping a close watch
on the development of China as a world power”
was rated as a priority by 88%, with just 9% saying
that it should have no priority. However, only 42% said
that it should be a top priority. These numbers were
not significantly different from when Pew asked these
same questions in 2003. [6]
Americans also perceive some degree of threat in China’s
growing power. Asked by Pew Research in February 2006
whether they viewed China’s emergence as a world
power as a “major threat, minor threat, or not
a threat to the well being of the United States,”
47% of respondents saw it as a major threat, while 34%
called it a minor threat.
This was somewhat higher than when CCFR asked a similar
question in 2004 and 33% viewed the development of China
as a world power as a critical threat and 54% called
it important but not critical. The Pew finding, though,
was similar to the 2002 CCFR finding that where 56%
said they viewed China’s rise as a critical threat
and 34% viewed it as an important but not critical threat.
[7]
At the same time Americans say that they do not worry
much about China’s rise. In a January 2006 Public
Agenda poll only 29% said they worry a lot “that
the growing power of China may be a threat to the United
States,” while 38% say they worry somewhat. Also,
an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in October
2004 presented a list of five foreign policy priorities
and asked which should be the top priority. Only 11%
of respondents chose “dealing with China as a
growing superpower,” on about the same level as
“peace negotiations with the Israelis and Palestinians”
and significantly lower than dealing with Iran and North
Korea’s nuclear ambitions and rebuilding Iraq.
[8]
China’s Economic Power
Most Americans do perceive China as an economic competitor.
In a NBC/WSJ poll of May 2005, 61% identified China
as “a serious economic competitor of the United
States” with another 30% saying that China will
be “will be a serious economic competitor to the
United States in the future.” Just 5% said that
it will never be an economic competitor.[9]
At the same time Americans lean slightly toward having
a positive view of China’s economic growth—which
is not a contradiction given American belief in the
stimulative value of economic competition. A December
2005 CNN/USA Today poll found 48% thought “the
growth of China as a major economy” was a positive
development for the United States, while 46% saw it
as a negative development. Asked by Pew in May 2005
“do you think that China's growing economy is
a good thing or a bad thing for our country?”
49% said it was a good thing and 40% said it was a bad
thing. [10]
When asked about the possibility of China becoming “significantly
more powerful economically than it is today” (emphasis
added), the response was divided. Forty-six percent
said it would be mostly positive while 45% said it would
be mostly negative. (BBC World Service Poll conducted
by GlobeScan/PIPA November 2004).[11]
This same pattern was found in questions that ask
about whether China’s economic growth is a threat.
In a December 2005 CNN/USA Today poll, 64%
of respondents said they considered China to be “an
economic threat to the United States,” while 33%
said it was not a threat. However, when given the option
to say whether they viewed China’s growth as a
threat or an opportunity, views were more balanced.
An April 2005 Ipsos Reid poll asked “Do you view
China's recent rapid economic development as a threat
or an opportunity for the United States?” with
50% saying it was an opportunity while 44% said it was
a threat. [12]
This view of China’s growth as an opportunity
is up a bit. In a June 1999 study by Potomac Associates
and Opinion Dynamics 51% saw "China's growth and
emergence as a global power" as a "threat
and challenge to US security interests [that] needs
to be contained," while just 40% felt it represented
"an opportunity for US business and a potential
benefit from which we should seek economic gain."
[13]
When asked to consider only China's "wealth and
economic power" in an October 1997 Gallup poll,
45% thought it to be an "opportunity" and
43% saw it as a "threat." [14]
The one case where a plurality backed away from China’s
growing power was when Newsweek asked about
“the emergence of China as an economic superpower”
in 2004. Only 28% said that this emergence was a good
thing while 41% said it was a bad thing. This was presumably
because the question, by referring to China as a superpower,
framed the issue as China directly challenging the US
position in the world.[15]
The relatively muted concern about Chinese economic
power is also reflected in a comparatively modest level
of attention to the issue. Asked by CNN/USA Today
in September 2003 how closely they followed “news
about the impact of business competition from China
on the U.S.” only 42% said they followed it very
(10%) or somewhat (32%) closely. Fifty eight percent
said they followed it not too closely (33%) or not closely
at all (25%).[16]
At the same time, a large majority views job losses
to China as a serious problem. An April 2005 Ipsos Reid
poll found that 66% agree (41% very much) that “China
is a serious threat to jobs in the United States.”
In June 2005, Democracy Corps found 72% saying that
“job losses to China and India” are a very
serious (32%) or serious (40%) problem in the current
economy, a finding replicated numerous times in 2003
and 2004 as well. Eighty percent said they were very
(51%) or somewhat (29%) worried that “good-paying
blue-collar jobs are going to countries like China,
Mexico and India” in a March 2004 US News
and World Report Poll. [17]
Twice in 2000 Gallup surveys found a solid majority
(57% in May, 56% in January) saying that "increased
trade between the United States and China would…mostly
hurt US workers." In each case, less than one-third
thought it would "mostly help." [18]
In a November 1999 Gallup survey, respondents were more
divided but still pessimistic about whether "more
foreign trade between the US and China [would] increase
or decrease the number of jobs available for American
workers in the United States." Forty-nine percent
thought it would "decrease" the jobs available,
while 41% thought it would increase them. [18a]
In June 1999, 60% said that imports from China pose
"a serious threat to the jobs of American workers;"
just 33% felt they do not (Potomac Associates and Opinion
Dynamics). [18b]
When asked in an April 2000 Harris Interactive survey,
more than two-thirds (68%) said they believe "trade
agreements with low-wage countries such as China and
Mexico lead to…lower wages for Americans."
[18c]
Outsourcing is another key concern. A Greenberg Quinlan
Rosner poll in April 2004 asked about the issue of “The
economy and the issues of job outsourcing, global trade,
and the economic rise of India and China” and
found that 46% thought that this is very serious problem
while another 33% thought it was an important problem.
Just 12% called it a small problem and 7% said it was
not a problem. Forty-eight percent said that it will
require major changes and another 30% said moderate
changes.[19]
China’s Military Power
Americans are divided about whether China poses a military
threat to the United States. Asked by CNN/USA Today
in December 2005 whether they considered China to be
a military threat to the United States, 50% said they
did consider China a threat, while 48% said they did
not. [20]
Only a minority of Americans have expressed concerned
about direct military conflict with China. In an NBC/Wall
Street Journal poll of April 2001--taken at a moment
of high tension just after China's release of detained
US airmen-only 43% said they were very or fairly concerned
"about possible armed conflict between the United
States and China in the next five years." Fifty-six
percent were "just a little concerned" (33%)
or "not concerned at all" (23%).[21]
Americans do not see China as becoming a critical military
threat over the next decade. Asked by CNN/USA Today
in February 2004 about a number of “possible threats
to the vital interest of the United States in the next
10 years,” only 39% labeled “the military
power of China” as a critical threat. Forty-six
percent labeled it an important threat and 11% said
it was not important. [22]
However, a majority does perceive that there is at
least a potential long term military threat. An NBC/Wall
Street Journal poll in March 2005 presented a list
of nations and asked respondents “whether you
think that country poses an immediate military threat
to the United States, a long-term military threat, or
no real military threat to the United States.”
Only 17% said China posed an immediate military threat,
but another 52% said it posed a long term military threat.
Just 27% said it posed no military threat. [23]
Large majorities show discomfort with the idea of China
significantly increasing its military power. A BBC/GlobeScan/PIPA
poll asked about some possible future trends in November
2004, including the possibility that “China becomes
significantly more powerful military than it is today.”
Seventy-five percent viewed this potential development
as mainly negative, while only 19% saw it as mainly
positive. [24]
In general Americans show little enthusiasm about the
prospect of another country emerging as another military
superpower to match the US. Respondents in a Pew May
2005 poll were told:
Right now, the U.S. (United States) has the
most powerful military capability in the world. In the
future, should US policies try to keep it so America
is the only military superpower or would it be better
if Europe, China or another country became as powerful
as the U.S.?
Not surprisingly, only 23% thought it would better
if a rival military superpower would emerge, while 63%
were opposed. [25]
Concerns about growing Chinese military may have also
been reflected in an April 2005 Ipsos-Reid poll which
asked respondents if they agreed that “the emergence
of China as a superpower is a threat to world peace.”
A majority of 53% agreed while 42% disagreed, although
it is somewhat difficult to interpret this finding because
it is not clear if respondents were responding to the
prospect of China as a military superpower, and economic
superpower, or both. [26]
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